The monographic survey conducted by the 40dB institute for EL PAÍS and Cadena SER on the “Challenges of the European Union” in the context of great international uncertainty shows that Spaniards have maintained their level of Europeanism compared to the previous year. On a scale of 0 to 10, with 10 representing “totally pro-European,” the average is 7.4. However, in some aspects, the discourse of the far right is gaining influence, particularly the negative attitude towards common policies. For example, 69.5% of respondents associate the EU with positive terms such as “democracy” (38.4%), “protection of the welfare state” (30.9%), or “peace” (18.9%), while 49.5% cite negative associations such as “bureaucracy” (26.4%), “international weakness” (16.4%), or “insecurity” (12.1%). When asked which challenges they should prioritize, “immigration” ranks first (38.5%), followed by inequalities and poverty (37.6%), economic growth and competitiveness (34.4%), and ongoing armed conflict (29.8%).
Far-right parties have gained influence in Europe, particularly through a xenophobic discourse that criminalizes immigrants. Yet the presence of these groups on an aging continent is crucial for economic development. A report by the Bank of Spain warns that the country will need 24 million immigrants in 2024 to maintain the worker-pensioner ratio by 2053, when the INE expects 14.8 million pensioners. Another monographic survey on immigration, also by 40dB and published last October, found that 57% of the population believe there are “too many” immigrants in Spain, and 75% associate immigrants with negative concepts.
In addition to these issues, trade conflicts with other countries (27.5%), the climate crisis (26.7%), defense and external security (24.5%), the future of agriculture (19.3%), dependence on external countries for technology and strategic resources (15.8%), and the rise of the far right and populism (12.2%) are among the European challenges that should be prioritized. Immigration concerns Vox voters 36.8 percentage points more than PSOE voters, while the climate crisis concerns Socialist voters 19.1 percentage points more than Santiago Abascal voters.
Amid the debate over the European arms buildup and increased spending on security and defense, the armed conflicts in Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Gaza are a source of concern for the electorate of Podemos, Sumar, PSOE, and PP, with over 33% of voters in these parties expressing concern. In contrast, voters of Vox (22.2%) and SALF (16.2%) express significantly less concern. Regarding defense and external security, PP voters (36.2%) are the most concerned, followed by voters of Abascal’s party (28.5%) and the PSOE (26.4%). This challenge is not as high a priority for voters of Sumar (19.8%) and Podemos (8.7%), who oppose increased military spending. Despite Vox’s apparent support for Donald Trump, who has announced a tariff war, almost 24% of voters consider “trade conflicts with other countries” a priority, just one point less than Podemos voters.
The survey also shows that Spaniards’ priorities regarding expectations of the EU do not align with the issues currently dominating debate within the Union. When asked what they believe the EU should invest in now, the majority groups cite housing, technology and industry, social policy, border control, and renewable energy, while defense and security policy is a lower priority. According to voting groups, left-wing voters prioritize housing, social policy, and renewable energy, while the right favors border control and security. On April 22, the President of the Government announced that Spain would allocate €10.471 million more to defense, fulfilling its commitment to allocate 2% of GDP to this item this year. 35.45% of this money will be used to improve conditions for armed forces personnel, 31.16% for new technologies to combat cyberattacks, 18.75% for weapons, and 16.73% for assistance in dealing with emergencies and natural disasters. Sánchez will present this plan next Wednesday in Congress, where he will also make statements about last Monday’s power outage. However, there will be no vote in Parliament on the increase in defense spending.
55.8% of Spaniards perceive the EU as “little or not at all united,” and 58.8% see it as little or not at all effective in the face of global challenges. Sumar and PSOE voters rate the European Union’s performance most positively, while Podemos and SALF voters are the most critical. Nevertheless, citizens trust the EU’s ability to address these challenges more than that of its member states. 67.6% of respondents believe that EU membership has “benefited Spain,” while 18.7% disagree. However, these answers vary considerably depending on voting intention. While 84.7% of PSOE and Sumar voters believe that EU membership has benefited the country, this percentage drops to 76.6% for PP voters, 62.6% for Podemos, 47.4% for Vox, and 37% for SALF. In addition, almost 31% of Spaniards want the European Union to expand its powers, 20.7% want it to become a federal state with greater power than its members, and 11.9% want it to be dissolved.
On April 3, Donald Trump declared a trade war on the world, imposing a universal 10% tariff and higher penalties on his main trading partners. The US president announced the highest import tariffs in a century, a 20% surcharge on EU products. A week later, under pressure from the markets and criticism from his own party, he ordered a 90-day partial truce in the trade war. When asked how the EU should react if the US reintroduces tariffs after this period, 79.2% of respondents agreed that the EU should “promote domestic production to reduce its economic dependence.” 74.9% are in favor of turning to other countries to seek alternative trade allies, and over half of the population (66.1%) believes that “tariffs should be imposed on US products.” In terms of electorate, Vox and SALF voters are the most hesitant, but support both strategies with over 55%.
When asked which economic region they believe the EU should have preferential trade relations with, Spaniards cite Oceania first (64.8%), followed by Latin America (64.2%), China (61.4%), other Asian countries (60.9%), and Africa (51%). Only Vox voters oppose preferential trade relations with the latter continent. The government’s foreign policy strategy document for 2028 proposes that the European Union prepare itself against the trade war with an economic shield of “defense and deterrence,” including a larger budget and sanctions capacity against US “coercive tactics.”
