Spain’s military investment will not exceed 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 and will not increase in 2026. The government does not intend to exceed this target, to which it has committed itself with NATO. However, this could be jeopardized as early as a month from now if, at an upcoming summit, the Atlantic Alliance issues a new demand to member states: to spend 5% of GDP on defense. Government sources emphasize that even if this demand is met, Spain does not plan to reach this percentage next year, as both Spain and other countries are already “up to their necks” in current investments.
On Tuesday, European Union defense ministers met in Brussels, with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte also in attendance. He called on the ministers to allocate 5% of GDP to military spending over the next seven years – 3.5% for purely military investments and another 1.5% for infrastructure. The Spanish government considers this percentage unacceptable, and sources from the Ministry of Defense, led by Margarita Robles, told Rutte as much: “We want to meet the 2%,” they emphasized.
Spain will fulfill this commitment in 2025, which corresponds to current NATO commitments. However, even if a new percentage is set next June, the government does not plan any additional efforts for 2026. They assert that Spanish industry will already struggle to reach the 2% target. They also downplay the importance of the new NATO requirement, viewing it as a way to “satisfy” US President Donald Trump rather than a real need. Furthermore, it could offer industry a “vision of the future.”
In fact, the Ministry of Defense is dampening expectations for the June summit, pointing out that negotiations will already take place before the meeting, as it will merely be a “stage-manage” event. “There will be many meetings this month; everything will be preparatory work,” these sources emphasize. In this context, the government believes that Rutte has already “put all the meat on the grill” by talking about 5%, which would mean spending between €33 billion and €80 billion. “In Spain, we can’t exhaust any more,” they say, pointing out that this poses not only a political problem for the PSOE because its partners would not support it, but also because they consider such investments unfeasible.
As for the partners, they add another problem to the equation after Congress passed a total embargo on the sale of weapons to Israel. This could pose an obstacle to achieving a higher percentage of military investment, as the government would have nowhere to source all the equipment. This is an issue the government has been stressing for weeks. While it has pledged to stop buying weapons from Israel starting October 7, 2023, it recognizes that maintaining a complete embargo will be difficult, given that there are cybersecurity and artificial intelligence technologies that Spain needs and that only Israel offers.
Furthermore, there is also a problem regarding deadlines, as defense-producing industries cannot implement this production in such a short time. In the case of Spanish companies, the Ministry of Defense recognizes that they must “get their act together.” “They need talent,” note the same sources, who assure that these sectors are both committed and optimistic, but must “make an effort.” In this sense, the government argues that sufficient measures have already been taken to achieve the 2% of GDP for defense, so the focus now should not be on the 5% that Rutte is calling for, even if 1.5% is earmarked for infrastructure.
