Spain’s political landscape is undergoing a profound transformation. The current coalition government, marked by internal conflicts, corruption allegations against the PSOE, and the weakness of Sumar, appears to be on its last legs. Society is demanding new elections that could fundamentally alter the political panorama.
Poll Results Indicate a Shift to the Right
A recent poll by Hamalgama Métrica for Vozpópuli reveals a clear trend: a potential alliance between the Popular Party (PP) and Vox could achieve an impressive absolute majority of 203 seats. This would signify a significant shift in the balance of power.
PP and Vox on the Rise: Strategic Reorientation Pays Off
Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) and Santiago Abascal (Vox) have ideologically strengthened their parties and are confirmed with 154 and 49 seats respectively in the poll. Particularly noteworthy is the increase for Vox, which rises from 33 to 49 seats – a gain of 16 deputies compared to the 2023 elections. With 15.4 percent of the votes, Vox would gain almost 687,189 new voters. This brings them close to their peak of 52 seats in the November 2019 elections.
The Popular Party records the largest gain in seats, increasing their mandates from 137 to 154 – a gain of 17 deputies. This corresponds to 35% of the votes and an additional 348,683 voters since 2023. Overall, the right-wing bloc would secure 50.4% of the votes in the event of new elections, while the PSOE and Sumar combined would be at 31%.
Smaller Parties on the Right: UPN Confirms Seat, “The Party is Over” Without Mandate
Within the right-wing bloc, developments among smaller formations are also noteworthy. The UPN, a traditional ally of the PP, would defend its single seat with 58,351 votes – an increase of 6,163 votes compared to July 2023.
The performance of the party “Se Acabó la Fiesta” (The Party is Over), led by Alvise Pérez, is remarkable. Although it secured three MEPs with 803,545 votes in the 2024 European elections, it would receive 534,884 votes in a general election, which would not be enough to gain a seat in the Chamber of Deputies.
Catalan Independence Movement: Slight Losses
The Catalan independence movement would lose only one seat overall. Junts would drop from seven to six deputies, while the ERC would retain its seven seats. EH Bildu would continue to hold six seats, the PNV five, the BNG two, and Coalición Canaria its current seat.
Collapse of the Progressive Bloc: PSOE and Sumar Lose Massively
On the other hand, the progressive bloc, consisting of PSOE and Sumar, faces a dramatic decline. The Socialists fall back to 105 seats, Sumar even to only 8. Together, they would lose over 3.2 million votes, illustrating the rapid wear and tear of a coalition plagued by corruption and scandals.
The PSOE under President Sánchez would lose approximately 1,600,000 votes, meaning that half of their electorate would abstain. The case of Sumar is particularly severe; having been crucial for Sánchez’s government with 31 seats in 2023, it would now almost completely lose its significance. This could bring Podemos back into parliament with six seats after two years of political “war” between the two formations.
