The uncontrolled migration flows and the loss of Spanish nationals, caused by a higher death rate than birth rate, are so severe that, if the trends of the last five years continue, natives could become a minority in some provinces as early as 2035 and throughout the country by 2045. This alarming conclusion was reached by renowned demographer Alejandro Macarrón, head of the Department of Studies and Social Analysis at CEU-CEFAS, after a comprehensive analysis of data from the National Institute of Statistics (INE) and Eurostat. “Substitution is not a myth of the far right,” he warns.
The “half-disintegration of demographic Spanishness,” as Macarrón puts it, could occur at the national level in less than 20 years. Alicante will be the first province to be registered (2035) and Córdoba the last (2073), followed by Badajoz (2069) and Cádiz (2064). Provinces such as Barcelona and Girona will be particularly quickly affected, as they have higher emigration rates and aging populations.
This progressive demographic change is due to the low birth rate, the aging of the population (more Spaniards are dying than are being born), and uncontrolled immigration. The Basque Country and Catalonia are particularly hard hit, with the majority of residents in these four provinces being immigrants by 2039. Madrid will experience this reality in 2038 if current momentum continues.
Decline of the Native Population
However, one doesn’t have to wait until then to feel the effects. The decline in the number of native Spaniards has been a reality for some time. To illustrate this point, the Spanish-born population aged 20 to 39 has declined by 4.57 million in just two decades. While in 2003 there were 12,408,592 people in this crucial age group, in 2024 there were only 7,837,194 – a decline of 36.8%. In other words, the native youth population has been reduced by half. This decline is attributed to both the low birth rate and “immigration and net emigration,” according to another study by Macarrón, published in the journal DAS ZIEL (The Goal).
This is not the only alarming fact. Since Pedro Sánchez took office, Spain has lost 621,466 native Spaniards, while simultaneously gaining 2,703,938 foreign nationals. If the nearly 600,000 children born to foreign women between July 1, 2018, and July 1, 2024, are counted as migrants, this results in a net loss of 1.2 million native Spaniards and a gain of 3.3 million migrants.
Spain is currently home to 39,761,459 native-born residents and 9,036,416 people born abroad – a record number. The majority of these foreigners come from Morocco, Colombia, and Romania and settle primarily in Catalonia (1,965,171 born abroad), Madrid (1,700,699), and the Valencian Community (1,234,610). This means that 18.5% of Spain’s population was born abroad, making it one of the European countries with the highest proportion of foreign residents.
According to demographer Alejandro Macarrón, the decline in the national population is primarily due to the fact that 511,000 more people died than were born, while only 110,000 emigrated. This corresponds to a loss of 18,000 Spaniards per year – a figure Macarrón considers “very low” given “youth unemployment, low wages, and high housing costs.” “Many would have left because they had a foreign partner,” he adds.
Macarrón warns that net migration cannot compensate for the “catastrophic birth deficit of the Spaniards”: “It doesn’t stop social aging, but only slows its progression. Not many migrants fill qualified positions. They don’t solve the loneliness and emotional desert caused by the lack of children and the breakdown of families. Furthermore, there are integration risks due to excessive immigration and/or culture shock.”
